A bit more than 50 days before taking the oath of office a second time, Trump took to social media this week to threaten the top three U.S. trading partners (Mexico, Canada, China). He vowed to impose tariffs of 25% on all products coming from our next-door neighbors, and to levy an additional 10% import duty on goods from America’s Asian rival.

While China could offset American tariffs by letting its currency fall, that might endanger Beijing’s recent efforts to stabilize the economy.